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Hurricane Milton Update 5

 

Current Location: 22.2N, 94.0W
Geographic Reference: 291 miles WNW of Progresso, MX
Movement: East-southeast at 11 mph
Max Winds: 85 mph gusting to 100 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 6 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 26 out of a possible 50 points (9 size, 17 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 295 miles
Organizational Trend: Rapidly Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 988 mb

 

Key Points

  • Tropical Storm Milton has rapidly intensified and is now a Category 1 Hurricane.
  • Hurricane Milton is still forecasted to begin a slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion by Monday and into Tuesday.
  • Hurricane Milton is now forecast to strike near or south of Sarasota, Florida Wednesday.
  • Hurricane Milton will likely track just north of the Yucatan Peninsula before moving towards Florida.
  • Steady to rapid strengthening will be seen during the next few days.
  • Hurricane Milton is predicted to become a major hurricane prior to reaching Florida on Wednesday. Peak wind speeds of 140 mph are expected, although the speed may be higher if the rapid intensification lasts longer.
  • Changes to the eventual track can be expected, it is important not to focus on single model runs or solutions!
  • Significant wind and wave impacts are expected.
  • Widespread storm surge damage is expected near and south of where landfall occurs along the west coast of Florida. Winds will cause widespread and long-lasting power outages as well as moderate to major damage.

Captiva Island Information

  • The current rain event will continue to push across the state, bringing a wet and active weather pattern across the State of Florida, even prior to hurricane impacts.
  • A Flood Watch is in effect for counties in the Florida Peninsula, spanning from the Nature Coast to along and south of the I-4 corridor until Thursday morning.
  • Rainfall amounts from the storm are expected to be 6-9 inches for Sanibel and Captiva Island on Wednesday.
  • Possible storm surge of 5-10 feet are possible on Wednesday as the center nears the coast of Florida to the north. Major coastal flooding and some damage is expected.
  • Travel is expected to be impacted!
  • Any remaining sand from Hurricane Helene can be found here.

Lee County Information

  • The Emergency Operation Center is partially activated and prepared to fully activate Monday morning. 
  • No mandatory evacuation orders have been called, but Lee County is poised to call for evacuations as early as Monday.  Residents and visitors do not have to wait for an evacuation order to leave. 
  • Lee County has declared a local state of emergency.  
  • County offices will close at noon on Monday, Oct. 7, and remain closed through Thursday. 
  • Lee County Schools will close Monday, October 7, and remain closed through Thursday. Officials have made the decision to activate some of the schools as storm shelters. The exact locations of storm shelters that will be open to the community will be determined and announced by Lee County Officials.
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