Current Location: 17.1N, 81.9W
Geographic Reference: 150 Miles South of Grand Cayman Island
Movement: North-northwest at 11 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 5 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 230 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 1005 mb

Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 95 percent

Key Points
1. Disturbance 35 is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf.
2. It is expected to be a large hurricane, which increases the tidal surge threat for Florida.

Disturbance 35 is very slowly organizing in the western Caribbean this morning. Our forecast takes the disturbance northward to the east of Cancun as a tropical storm tomorrow afternoon and past western Cuba and into the southeast Gulf by sunrise on Wednesday. Unlike the setup with previous storms, steering currents appear to be more clear-cut. The forecast is for a deep upper-level low over Arkansas on Wednesday and Thursday to accelerate the storm northward toward the Big Bend area of Florida. The only impact to the northwest Gulf lease blocks will be an increasing southeasterly swell Wednesday evening. Squalls should pass to the east of Louisiana and Mississippi.

We are predicting the storm to have max sustained wind near 85 mph at landfall mid to late afternoon on Thursday. By Friday morning, we are forecasting it to be a non-tropical low in eastern Tennessee. Given the strong southwesterly wind aloft across the eastern Gulf, the hurricane's wind field will be heavily skewed to the right of the track. Tropical storm force wind will extend east across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic offshore Florida and Georgia. It's large wind field may produce a significant storm surge up the west coast of Florida on Thursday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
SE Louisiana Lease Blocks: Most of the significant impacts should remain east of the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana. However, a large swell from the ESE-SE may impact the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Cayman Islands: Street flooding and travel delays are likely.
Yucatan: Isolated power outages could occur along with localized flooding.
Florida West Coast: Power outages are likely. Major coastal flooding could occur along with some surge damage
Florida Big Bend: Widespread power outages are expected, along with significant wind and surge damage.
SE Georgia: Power outages are likely. Street flooding could cause travel delays.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert